Florida’s new congressional map, drawn in secret by Gov. Ron DeSantis and announced exclusively on Fox News Monday morning, will almost certainly sail through the Republican controlled Legislature in the next two days without any changes or substantive debate.
Currently there are 20 Republican members of United States Congress from Florida and seven Democrats, with one Democratic seat open following the resignation of Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick.
The new map appears designed to garner Republicans a total of 24 Congressional seats following the November election, leaving just four Democratic House members.
The reality could be somewhat different however, as members scramble to decide which districts to run in.
Here are some of the scenarios that are expected to play out in the coming days.
Lois Frankel (D)
Lois Frankel, who currently represents Congressional District 22, will likely run in the newly redrawn CD 23, which includes Boynton Beach and West Palm Beach. That district includes many of the communities and cities she currently represents in CD 22, so, her move into CD 23 should be seamless.
Jared Moskowitz (D)
Jared Moskowitz, who currently represents CD 23, will have three options. The most likely scenario is for him to run in the new CD 25, which runs up the Florida coast from Miami Beach all the way to Boca Raton, and includes Aventura and parts of Fort Lauderdale and Pompano Beach. Heavily Jewish, the district leans Republican, but a sizeable part of Moskowitz’s old district is now in CD 25. The new district favors a Republican (President Donald Trump won it 54-45 in 2024), but in an off-year election, and with Trump’s popularity hitting all-time lows, Democrats believe they can win this seat. But it will be expensive and it will be a fight.
There are two other possibilities for Moskowitz.
He could run in the newly drawn CD 22, a bizarrely concocted district that includes his hometown of Parkland, as well as Weston and Davie, it then cuts across the Florida Everglades to include parts of Naples and Marco Island. Trump won this district 55-44. But again, in a wave election, Democrats believe they could win CD 22 in November. Holding onto it in future years could be difficult, however.
The final possibility for Moskowitz is to run in the newly redrawn CD 20. But that is likely where Debbie Wasserman Schultz may run. (See below)
Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)
Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who was first elected to Congress in 2004, is the second longest serving member of the Florida delegation. She currently represents CD 25 and appears to be the main target of DeSantis’s redistricting map in South Florida. Her district was divided into at least three other congressional districts and as a result, she doesn’t have many good choices.
The most likely scenario is for her to run in the new CD 20, which is currently empty following the resignation of Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick. The new CD 20 includes parts of Miami, as well as North Miami and Miami Gardens. It also includes Hollywood and parts of Dania Beach. The seat favors a minority candidate, but not nearly as much as it has in the past.
In this new district, 42% of the voters are Black, 23% or Hispanic and 30% are White. In a winner take all primary, in which there are three or four black candidates splitting the vote, Wasserman Schultz, who would also have a significant financial advantage, would be favored to win the primary.
Currently, there are a half dozen black candidates vying for that seat, including former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holeness, rapper Luther Campbell, and Cherfilus-McCormick, who claims she is indeed running as she awaits trial on fraud charges.
Whoever wins the primary will almost certainly win the general election. This seat is a D+37 district; it went 68-31 for Kamala Harris in 2024.
Nevertheless, given the racial element of the race, if Wasserman Scultz does decide to run in CD 20, it would be a tricky course for her to chart. But it may be her best shot of staying in Congress.
Wasserman Schultz could also potentially run in CD 22 or CD 25, but those would be harder races, because it is not clear how the former head of the Democratic National Committee would be received in districts that Trump won by ten points.
It is also unlikely that Wasserman Schultz and Moskowitz will both run for the same seat – whether it’s CD 20, CD 22, or CD 25 – and you can expect in the coming days for their to be a lot of polling in these new districts, as Moskowitz and Wasserman Schultz try to chart a path for their political survival.
Here is what is likely to happen in Central Florida.
Kathy Castor (D)
Kathy Castor, who currently represents CD 14, has already announced she will stay in that district and run for re-election. But her race is now much harder. CD 14 went from a D+5 to what now appears to be a R+10.5. Trump won the newly redrawn CD 14, with 54.5% of the vote compared to Harris who received 44% of the vote. Given Castor’s name recognition, as well as Trump’s unpopularity, Democrats feel relatively confident they can hold onto this seat. But it will be expensive and will likely be a nailbiter on election night in November.
Darren Soto (D)
Darren Soto, who currently represents CD 9, is perceived to be a dead man walking. DeSantis broke his district into four other districts. The best district for him might be CD 7, but that is a R+13 seat. But there is already a well-funded Democrat in that race, Bale Dalton, that has the backing of the party. All the other new seats around Soto are R+16 or R+17. Soto could try to challenge fellow Democrat Max Frost in CD 10, but that seems unlikely.
Soto’s best hope for remaining in Congress will be if the Florida Supreme Court steps in and determines the map is unconstitutional and demand DeSantis and the Legislature draw a new map that isn’t so partisan.
Republican Impact
While the maps are a direct assault on Democrats, there is some concern among Republicans that by going after so many Democrats, that otherwise safe Republican seats could now be in play. This was certainly the case in Texas when they went through their redistricting process.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has pledged to spend at least $20 million to challenge some of these seats going forward
So, let’s look at a few Republicans.
Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
Mario Diaz-Balart represents CD 26 and is the longest serving member of the House from Florida, having first been elected in 2002. Diaz-Balart saw his district geographically shrink substantially in size. His district formerly stretched from Hialeah to the west coast of Florida. His new district will now be more concentrated in northwest Miami-Dade and southwest Broward counties. He goes form an incredibly safe seat, which Trump won by 35 points in 2024, to a seat that Trump only won by 18 points.
But for Democrats to take advantage of that shift and seriously challenge Diaz-Balart, they would need to find a candidate who could raise money and has at least some name recognition in the district. Until now, this seat was not on the radar for the Democratic Party. We will see if that changes.
Carlos Gimenez (R)
It does not appear DeSantis changed any of the lines in CD 28 which Carlos Gimenez represents. The district includes South Miami Dade County and the Florida Keys. This remains a Republican seat, but one that Democrats have fantasized about. The president won the district by 25 points in 2024 but Trump’s tariff policies, immigration crackdown and the rising cost of gas – particularly diesel – has hit the commercial fishing industry particularly hard.
Maria Elvira Salazar (R)
Maria Elvira Salazar, who represents CD 27, remains the Democrats’ number one target in South Florida and DeSantis’s redistricting efforts aren’t likely to change that.
DeSantis appears to have kept the lines to her district the same.
Others
Democrats are also analyzing other districts around the state, especially in Central Florida. They are trying to determine if DeSantis left some Republicans vulnerable.
Their main hope for a flip in Central Florida is the embattled Republican Congressman Cory Mills, in CD 7.
