The Real Deal‘s Miami Forum is this week. Don’t go unprepared: Here’s a primer on the South Florida real estate market.
Macro issues are affecting the tri-county region. President Trump’s immigration policies threaten population growth in South Florida, which trickles down to fewer renters signing leases and an overall drop in consumer spending that affects other sectors of the real estate market. Developers have learned how to navigate the tariff landmines. It’s the thinning profit margins, driven by the high cost of land, construction and insurance, that are having a bigger impact. More projects will be canceled or sold to new partnerships that plan to revive them.
Before we get too into it, the event will be held at Mana Wynwood in Miami on Wednesday and Thursday (Nov. 5 and 6). If you haven’t purchased your ticket yet, use the code WEEKLYDIRT and this link for 20 percent off general admission. Here’s a link to the schedule.
My colleagues and I will be moderating key conversations about market headwinds and opportunities, what resi brokerages owe their agents (and what they don’t), the next generation of office space, how developers and brokers are recapturing the international investor, the keys to leveraging social media, the growing role that architecture and interior design play in high-end sales, and more.
Our Publisher, Amir Korangy, will also lead separate, one-on-one conversations with controversial investors Grant Cardone and Patrick Carroll.
Here are dispatches from our South Florida team, based on what we’ve been hearing from sources and speakers ahead of the event:
Residential boom is uneven
Demand for luxury waterfront homes continues, but the condo market is a bit more irregular. Agents are also banking on another wave of New Yorkers migrating to South Florida, in this case driven by the mayoral election in New York. Corcoran Group agent Mick Duchon said that these deals don’t happen overnight. State Rep. Zohran Mamdani’s expected win will just propel New Yorkers who have been thinking about or planning a move already.
“These transactions are weeks, months and sometimes years in the marking,” Duchon said.
Condo developers are coming out of a tough summer. Some have found their sweet spot with more affordable projects geared toward short-term rental investors, while others are seeing success in ultra-luxury boutique properties. But the oversaturation of branded projects (or just using the wrong brand) has made it increasingly difficult to sell condos.
The general resale market, which has seen months’ worth of year-over-year declines, rallied in September. Dollar volume in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties surged 13 percent to $4.3 billion, up from $3.8 billion last September, according to the Miami Association of Realtors. But while sales were up, condo prices were either flat or down across the tri-county region. Single-family prices were either flat or showed moderate growth. The level of price growth we saw post-pandemic is gone.
Foreclosures ahead
South Florida has seen an uptick in lenders foreclosing on development sites where projects have not broken ground, and one case where a builder lost the property. Rok Lending, the mortgage arm of the Rok family, acquired an Aventura development site owned by an affiliate of Miami-based developer Marlon Gomez. The developer, who filed a notice of appeal, had planned a medical office project.
Brian Tuttle, the owner of the mixed-use Mainstreet at Tuttle development site in Royal Palm Beach narrowly avoided a foreclosure auction by filing for bankruptcy on the same day the property was set to be sold at a foreclosure auction. And in recent months, lenders have filed foreclosure lawsuits against an entity managed by developer Harvey Hernandez, which owns a Fort Lauderdale condo development site; as well as an entity previously managed by developer Dan Kodsi, which owns a condo-hotel development site in Miami’s Art & Entertainment District. Kodsi told The Real Deal that he is no longer involved.
— Francisco Alvarado
South Florida’s apartment construction boom carries on
This is despite a current supply overhang and a slowdown in leasing and rent growth compared to the pandemic-era peak. Last year, a record 18,600 units were completed in the tri-county region, which outpaced new leases by more than 3,000 units. Median asking rents are also decreasing on a year-over-year basis. Some developers and landlords have been offering concessions. But apartment developers overall remain optimistic and believe demand will return by the time new projects are completed.
Office market leveling out
South Florida’s office investment sales market showed a slight pickup over the past year. But it’s not all great news, as leasing by new-to-market firms has slowed compared to the pandemic boom. While institutional investors are coming back to the market to purchase office buildings, they’re carefully picking trophy properties in deals that are few and far between.
Case in point: In the fourth quarter of last year, Paul Singer’s Elliott Investment Management paid $443 million for the 701 Brickell Avenue tower in Miami’s financial district. By comparison, the top office deal so far this calendar year was done by a family office. Spanish billionaire Amancio Ortega’s Ponte Gadea, an investment vehicle for Ortega’s dividends from his retail empire, paid $274 million for the Sabadell Financial Center in Brickell.
Even for those deals, cap rates were higher amid the higher interest rate environment and harder financing climate for offices, experts said. Also, many lenders have redlined offices and are making no exceptions for South Florida.
And many of the planned office projects announced during the recent market bonanza are on hold or have been canceled.
— Lidia Dinkova
What we’re thinking about: Tuesday’s election. Go vote!
CLOSING TIME
Residential: Pinchas and Lindsay Goldshtein sold the waterfront, single-family home at 10241 East Broadview Drive in Bay Harbor Islands to Garfield RE LLC for $12.8 million.
Commercial: Boca Raton-based Penn-Florida Companies sold the development site at 375 East Royal Palm Road in Boca Raton for $27 million. SobelCo, also based in Boca Raton, purchased the property, as well as the adjacent 0.2-acre site at 343 East Royal Palm Road for $3.1 million.
— Research by Mary Diduch
NEW TO THE MARKET An oceanfront mansion in Palm Beach hit the market for $89 million. The six-bedroom, eight-and-a-half-bathroom, 8,259-square-foot home at 102 Reef Road sits on a 0.8-acre lot. It’s listed with Christian Angle of Christian Angle Real Estate. Property records show C. Steven Duncker, a retired partner at Goldman Sachs and a thoroughbred horse racing figure, and his wife, Melinda, own the home, which was built in 2014. They paid $6.3 million for the property in 2011.
A thing we’ve learned:
Give Miami Day is Nov. 20. The 24-hour fundraising event collects and distributes contributions to more than 1,300 nonprofits, including these housing-related organizations.
Elsewhere in Florida
- Gov. Ron DeSantis directed Florida’s Board of Governors to “crack down” on the use of H-1B visas at state colleges and universities, the Tallahassee Democrat reports. DeSantis accused the schools of hiring foreign workers over qualified Americans.
- The last remaining Royal Castle in Miami closed its doors. The decades-old location of the burger chain on Northwest 79th Street and 27th Avenue is now vacant and available for lease, according to the Miami Herald.
- Elected officials and food banks in South Florida are warning of a crisis if the government shutdown halts food assistance programs like SNAP, which one in four Miami-Dade households rely on, NBC Miami reports. Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava said local agencies are preparing for a surge in need.
- Miami Dolphins general manager Chris Grier and franchise owner Steve Ross parted ways following the team’s disappointing 2-6 start to the 2025 season, according to the Herald. Ross said the move marks the beginning of needed changes.
