Top condo developers Ugo Colombo and Camilo Miguel Jr. say another wave of New Yorkers is headed to South Florida following Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral election win. But the influx will fall short of that during the pandemic, which propelled South Florida’s market to new heights.
“It’s certainly top of mind for New Yorkers to move to South Florida,” Miguel, founder and CEO of Coconut Grove-based Mast Capital, said at The Real Deal Miami Real Estate Forum 2025 on Thursday.
At Miami Beach’s 17-story, 82-unit Perigon condo tower, which Mast is co-developing with Barry Sternlicht’s Starwood Capital Group, 10 buyer “leads” came in after Tuesday’s election, more than the three to five that were more common pre-election, Miguel said. Also post-election, Colombo said he spoke with two New Yorkers who expressed their plan to move south.
“I don’t think it’s going to be anything near what Covid brought to Miami,” Colombo, founder of Miami-based CMC Group, said at the forum. “There will be an influx. I don’t know how much it’s going to swing the market.”
The pair spoke during the panel “Pushing the Envelope: Where Top Developers Are Placing Their Biggest Bets” on Thursday hosted by TRD’s Residential Bureau Chief Katherine Kallergis. Both developers said they plan to heighten marketing of Miami condo projects to New York buyers.
But despite the potential boost of additional demand from New York, South Florida’s condo development market continues to deal with some headwinds.
“The market has softened in certain sectors. There’s been a lot of product that’s been presented to the market,” Colombo said, adding that traditionally condo supply has outpaced demand in Miami. “There are … projects that have been presented that maybe couldn’t get financing. It wasn’t just the best.”
Over the past year, South Florida has experienced some reprieve on interest rates due to two benchmark rate drops this year, and insurance, thanks to a calmer hurricane season, and a drop in loan spreads, Miguel said. Construction costs, which had been elevated for years, calmed, but this drop was then undone by Trump’s tariffs.
“The luxury market continues to remain strong,” Miguel said. “We are seeing some commodity product that’s maybe not moving at the pace the market would like to see. We cannot ignore some headwinds.”
Lenders also became more conservative due to hefty condo construction and supply in South Florida. Some financiers, especially banks, also stepped back amid higher interest rates. The developers said that’s mostly affected financing for mid-market projects, but not top-tier towers.
Colombo, whose CMC is starting construction on the 70-unit Four Seasons Private Residences in Coconut Grove on Thursday, said he had no problem financing the project.
“We had many, many choices,” he said. “I am also looking at another project I haven’t announced. It’s a bigger, higher, taller building and there I see some resistance from lenders, on the middle market.”
Colombo and Miguel both have embraced South Florida branded condo development craze.
Aside from the Four Seasons, Colombo also is developing the 65-unit Vita at Grove Isle on roughly 6 acres on the 20-acre Grove Isle in Miami’s Coconut Grove. Vita is its own standalone brand.
CMC is partnering with Nadim Ashi’s Fort Partners for the Four Seasons. Fort has exclusivity for the brand in South Florida.
Aside from the Perigon, Mast is developing the 80-story, 397-unit luxury Cipriani Residences in Miami’s Brickell. The Perigon is over 80 percent pre-sold, and Cipriani over 70 percent, Miguel said.
Miguel said condo branding is one way “to try to reduce friction and create revenue” in the current development climate, along with location and design. For Colombo, differentiating his projects means not pinching pennies on finishes.
“Don’t look at making the last penny. Look at making the customer happy because that eventually is going to pay off at the end,” Colombo said.
During the question and answer section of the panel, one South Florida transplant from New York, who said he moved south about four years ago, countered the developers’ notion that Mamdani’s win won’t be as beneficial to Miami’s market as the pandemic.
“You guys need to build more buildings,” the man said, adding that a huge population influx is coming.
Colombo, who during the panel pointed out the scarcity of developable sites on the ocean and in Brickell, said costs remain an issue for starting more projects.
“We need to find a way to do it cheaper,” he said.
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