It’s hard to say when exactly fortunes turned, but real estate players agree: Much of Miami-Dade County is in a buyer’s market.
“It’s definitely a buyer’s market up to $2 million, $3 million bucks,” Duff Rubin, Coldwell Banker’s regional president for the Southeast, said. “You see a lot of stale inventory, and there’s a lot of overpriced listings.”
But above $3 million, and even more categorically above $10 million, the situation is different.
“It’s been a story of contrasts,” Corcoran Group’s Pam Liebman said. “You’re seeing a very, very strong uber-luxury market in Miami. Then you see other parts of the market where sales volume dropped by 40 percent.”
It’s a tale of two markets in a year marked by economic uncertainty and international conflict. South Florida faces high insurance costs, diminishing affordability and an aging condo crisis brought on by post-Surfside regulation.
For years, Miami’s real estate brokers insisted that the Magic City was impervious to the obstacles kneecapping the national housing market. While the rest of the country’s residential markets faltered, Miami persevered, racking up record sales and attracting billionaire transplants. A waterfront estate in Bay Point sold for a record $85.2 million in November. Spec developer Todd Glaser and his partners dropped $105 million on a waterfront North Bay Road estate they plan to flip for $169 million. They have a more ambitious plan they’re also working on: Build a spec mansion they would sell for $300 million.
The luxury market’s consistent growth means dollar volume is rising even as sales slow.
The top 20 brokerages in Miami-Dade County closed nearly $19 billion in on-market sales in the 12-month period ending in August, according to The Real Deal’s analysis. The top 25 agent teams sold about $6.4 billion in on-market sales in that time, up from $5.4 billion in last year’s ranking.
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Resi’s kingmakers
The tops of the rankings for both firms and agents is crowded with familiar faces. Compass nabbed the top spot for brokerages with $3.7 billion in sales. Douglas Elliman, Coldwell Banker, One Sotheby’s International Realty and Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices EWM (BHHS EWM) Realty followed in second, third, fourth and fifth place, respectively.
The Jills Zeder Group, which includes Jill Eber, Jill Hertzberg and Judy Zeder at Coldwell Banker, once again clinched first place with nearly $1.4 billion in sales. Chad Carroll’s Carroll Group with Compass placed second with $544.9 million. Elliman’s Dina Goldentayer took third with $460.2 million in sales. Dora Puig, broker and owner of Luxe Living Realty landed in fourth place, closing $362.4 million. Nelson Gonzalez, of BHHS EWM, rocketed up to fifth with $347.8 million in sales, after falling off the ranking last year.
The Brokerage South Florida Real Estate’s Joel Lusky is among the few, like Jordan Karp and the late Darin Tansey, who have joined the ranks of top agents in Miami-Dade in recent years. Lusky’s top two deals over the past year include the record $20.7 million sale of a waterfront mansion in North Miami in August and the $23 million sale of a waterfront home in Bal Harbour a year earlier. Both were just outside of TRD’s research parameters.
“Now buyers are more conscious of who they hire, their credentials. There’s more loyalty.”
Lusky said his strategy is to play nice with the competition.
“I have excellent relationships with every top agent in the business. That definitely has helped a lot,” he said. “This is a relationship business, not only with clients, but with agents as well.”
Tansey, a longtime Elliman agent who died this summer, made TRD’s ranking for the first time due to his success at the Ritz-Carlton Residences, Miami Beach, where he lived. Lynna Weil, his executive assistant who is taking over much of Tansey’s business, pointed to a burst of activity this summer at the Ritz.
Noticeably absent from the list is Oren Alexander, who led the Side-backed brokerage Official and placed eighth last year with $185 million in sales. Alexander, along with his brothers Tal and Alon, is in jail on federal sex trafficking charges and is set to face trial starting in January. He recently tapped the “dream team” of attorneys who represented Sean “Diddy” Combs in his sex trafficking case.
Oren’s exit from the market has created some opportunities for competitors to pick up his business, some said.
Industry shakeups
Shifts in market performance and the agent food chain were not the only elements resi players had to navigate.
Agents and brokerages also had to adapt to the changes brought by the class action litigation that culminated in the National Association of Realtors reaching a $418 million settlement last year.
Under the agreement, buy-side agents are now required to sign buyer-broker agreements with their clients, a mandate some resisted. Many say it can stunt the client relationship by forcing an awkward conversation about compensation.
“I do see a lot of agents fighting for additional commission when it’s not being offered, and trying to get it from the seller,” said Compass’ top agent, Chad Carroll.
But buyer-broker agreements ended up benefiting his business, he said. “Now buyers are more conscious of who they hire, their credentials. There’s more loyalty.”
George CancioBello, the owner of Lifestyle International Realty, said the new rules have been a positive for the industry.
“It’s been a great thing for the industry because now there’s more transparency,” he said. “It brought more professionalism to the business.”
But it’s not all easy. Compass agent Nancy Batchelor said the NAR changes make it difficult to “just spontaneously run and show your listing.” Some sellers are also unwilling to pay a standard commission.
“We’ve seen more discounts on the buyer’s side,” she said. Batchelor referred to a deal in South Miami where her buyers really wanted the property and the seller was paying a much lower fee. “We had to eat that and it was a very difficult sale.”
Ownership is also shifting the business. Zillow and Compass have been waging a battle over private listings. In September, Compass announced plans to acquire Anywhere Real Estate for $1.6 billion. The merger is set to close next year and will bring five of Miami-Dade County’s top brokerages under the Compass umbrella. This includes Compass’ fiercest rival in Miami-Dade, Coldwell Banker.
It may demand a shift in brokerage strategy from leaders who were more focused on treading water in a challenging market, even if they knew that growth was the path to profitability for traditional brokerages.
“We are not of the mindset that larger is better,” Elliman’s Florida CEO Jay Parker said in an interview not long before the announcement. “We continue to make our primary focus our agent retention and agent success.”
But this gargantuan merger may signal that growth is now truly necessary to compete, appraiser Jonathan Miller noted in his weekly newsletter, Housing Notes.
“This merger provides a stern warning to all the boutique brokerage firms that they need to align with a large firm to keep up with Compass in terms of offerings to new agents,” he wrote.
Trump slump
In the weeks after Donald Trump’s November presidential victory, exuberant buyers rushed to snap up homes in luxury enclaves in what was dubbed “the Trump bump.”
In Miami Beach, there were 12 closings of $10 million or more in December 2024 and January 2025, compared to just one during those months a year earlier. Dollar volume followed suit, totaling $220 million, compared to just $16.5 million a year earlier, according to data compiled by Miller.
“Momentum at the end of ’24 was really good,” Liebman remembered. But market confidence wobbled in the weeks after Trump took office, and it nosedived in April when the president announced his tariff policy on “Liberation Day.”
Spring, typically a busy time for real estate agents, was quiet.
“Liberation Day and trade wars aren’t what we had on our bingo card,” said Nathan Zeder, part of Coldwell Banker’s Jills Zeder Group.
As markets shook off the shock of tariff policies over the summer, buyer confidence rebounded.
Corcoran’s top agent, Julian Johnston, said that he and his team were busy from December to February, but work quieted down in March and April. By the end of June, “I was slammed,” he said.
Waterfront land in Miami Beach became more in demand, as inventory of turnkey homes remained low.
“There are trophy properties still being bought by billionaires,” Johnston said.
Goldentayer said she sold $160 million worth of homes in a 40-day period this summer.
“I sold a house that was just a concrete shell for $70 million,” she said. “If the location and view are perfect, buyers are willing to do the work.”
One Sotheby’s International Realty agent Michael Martinez was among the agents who said uncertainty surrounding the transition of power, tariffs and other issues pushed a lot of sales activity to the summer.
“It’s been the most active summer since 2020,” Martinez said.
Martinez said buyers continue to hail from the Northeast, West Coast and Latin America. Inventory is on the rise in his markets, and, as expected, “the houses that need more updating are the ones with higher days on market,” Martinez said.
Most top agents are looking ahead to New York City’s mayoral election in November, banking on more wealthy New Yorkers relocating to South Florida in the likely event that Zohran Mamdani wins. It’s part of what they think will help fuel the winter season.
“We always get an influx of New Yorkers, but the conversation with New Yorkers is especially high-tuned [right now],” said Nathan Zeder.
A good season could send a wider signal about the market.
“Developers are back in the game. I am starting to see more international clients,” Puig noted. And now that Trump’s been in office for about 10 months, “people know what to expect in the next three years. Big money comes out to play.”
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