Hurricane Erin shocked forecasters when it intensified from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours.
As the storm churned eastward through the Atlantic and threatened parts of the East Coast, including South Florida, meteorologists closely monitored its path.
Among the tools being tested was Google’s new DeepMind-powered artificial intelligence hurricane forecast model, which received its first real-time trial during Erin’s development.
AI model outperformed traditional forecasts
James Franklin, former chief of the Hurricane Specialist Unit at the National Hurricane Center, said the AI model performed exceptionally well.
“It did very, very well,” Franklin said. “The Google DeepMind model did it a little bit better than any of the other ones.”
Franklin noted that the AI model had the most accurate forecast track for the first three days of Erin’s life cycle, outperforming both the American and European models.
Historical data drives AI predictions
Unlike traditional models that rely heavily on real-time atmospheric data, Google’s AI system uses historical hurricane data to identify patterns that human forecasters may miss.
“They match these long historical data with details on how hurricanes behave and statistically put them together and see patterns the human eye couldn’t see,” Franklin explained.
He said the model excelled in predicting both the storm’s intensity and its overall life cycle.
“It really outperformed the other guidance in terms of intensity,” Franklin said. “It got the general shape of the life cycle change almost exactly. With practically no error.”
Still not ready for public use
While the AI model showed promise, Franklin cautioned that it is still in development and not yet available for public use.
“No hurricane forecast model is perfect,” he said. “But for its first real-time test, the Google model AI was as good as the other reliable models.”
If the system continues to perform well throughout the hurricane season, Franklin believes it could soon play a larger role in official forecasts.
“By next year, it’s going to get a real hard look and really play a role in the forecasts that come out of the hurricane center,” he said.
For now, Google’s Weather Lab includes a disclaimer advising users to continue relying on official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.
