Colorado State University researchers Wednesday cautiously stood behind their forecast for the rest of the 2025 hurricane season.
As the Atlantic Ocean stirs with a tropical storm and two disturbances, including one off Northeast Florida, the university’s researchers maintained that the season’s activity will be slightly above normal. But they added they have “lower-than-normal confidence with this outlook” and pointed to uncertainty because of what is known as “Caribbean shear” that has been seen in recent weeks.
“Typically, high levels of Caribbean shear in June-July are associated with less active hurricane seasons,” a news release said.
Countering the wind shear are warmer-than-normal water temperatures in parts of the Atlantic and what are known as El Nino conditions, which can help in forming and intensifying hurricanes.
In a forecast issued in July, Colorado State predicted 16 named storms, with eight reaching hurricane status and three becoming major storms with winds of 111 mph or higher. An initial forecast in April and a June update projected 17 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes and four classified as major storms. An average season is considered 14 named storms with 7 hurricanes.
The six-month season, which began June 1, has included four named storms, including Tropical Storm Dexter, which was moving into the north Atlantic on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the meteorological company AccuWeather on Wednesday kept its pre-season forecast of 13 to 18 Atlantic storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes.
Indicating the next few months will be more active than the first third of the season, AccuWeather said “abnormally warm waters and conditions more conducive for tropical development will fuel the potential for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop and potentially rapidly intensify near coastal cities from late summer throughout autumn.”
