TALLAHASSEE – Gov. Ron DeSantis has expanded a declared state of emergency to 61 of the state’s 67 counties as Tropical Storm Helene heads toward Florida and is expected to rapidly grow into a powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
Helene is forecast to reach northern Florida this week with life-threatening storm surge and winds that will cause widespread power outages.
“It’s going to be a hurricane, at least a Cat 1 (Category 1), possibly a Cat 2. Will it be stronger than that? That remains to be seen,” said Felecia Bowser, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service Tallahassee. “Those types of clarifications are going to be coming in the next day or two, where we can see if we are going to be faced with a major hurricane.”
A period of rapid intensification is forecast from Wednesday morning to Thursday afternoon. The latest forecast calls for the storm to be a major hurricane making landfall late Thursday along the Nature Coast. The forecast cone has continued to focus on this area but, as of Thursday morning, has the storm center anywhere between Panama City and Tampa.
Storm surge, wind, and rain will affect areas well away from the center of the storm, particularly to the east of its eye.
The area where the storm makes landfall could see 8 to 12 inches of rain. Parts of North Florida were battered last year by Hurricane Idalia and last month by Hurricane Debby – both of which made landfall in the Big Bend’s Taylor County.
Near the storm center, 10 to 15 feet of storm surge is expected with lower amounts farther south away from the forecast storm center. In the Keys, 1 to 3 feet of storm surge is expected in addition to tropical storm conditions.
DeSantis’ order placed Division of Emergency Management Executive Director Kevin Guthrie in charge of the state’s response, including coordinating efforts with utility companies, neighboring states and the federal government.
DeSantis’ order also activated the Florida National Guard and Florida State Guard.
The order included Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Brevard, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Duval, Escambia, Flagler, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Glades, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lake, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Monroe, Nassau, Okaloosa, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Volusia, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington Counties.
Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties are not on the list.
Helene is moving to the northwest but is forecast to turn to the north as it passes through the Yucatan Channel and into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
From there, conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are favorable for significant strengthening, according to the National Hurricane Center.
In addition to Idalia and Debby making landfall in the Big Bend, Hurricane Michael brought 160 mph sustained winds near Mexico Beach in October 2018 and caused widespread damage in the Panhandle.
